Danger Zone

It is conventional wisdom that America and China are running a “superpower marathon” that may last a century. But the sharpest phase of that competition will be a decade-long sprint, and the moment of maximum danger could be just a few years away, Brands and Beckley argue. China has entered the most perilous period in the life of a great power. It has gained the capability to upend the existing international order, but is not yet secure or powerful enough to build a new order. Soon its window to act will slam shut―unless it takes drastic action. China is behaving so aggressively in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and other areas not because it is a confident, rising power, but because it is a peaking power whose economy is slowing while its rivals multiply. America will still need a long-term strategy for competing with China. But first, it needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone ahead.